BRIGHTON host Manchester United in Saturday evening’s encounter from the Premier League. WLB debutant Jarnel (@Jarnel_Dh) takes a closer look at The Amex match-up.
Brighton vs Manchester United | Saturday 7th May 2022, 17:30 | Sky Sports
Both of these sides head into Saturday evening’s clash on the back of 3-0 wins. Brighton managed to devour Wolves, whilst Manchester United dominated against Brentford on Monday night.
Following their convincing win at Molineux, the Seagulls will be very confident, but also relaxed ahead of their return to The Amex.Graham Potter’s outfit surpassed the magical 40-point mark with a win against Spurs – who came into that game with a four-game winning streak in the Premier League and so Brighton have their feet planted on the rocky beach as they approach the final few games of the season.
Brighton fans may well feel disappointed about their previous poor run of form which saw them pick up six points from a possible 30. A few more results during that lean streak and Potter’s men could be gunning for a Europa Conference League spot. Shoulda, coulda, woulda! But will this free mindset cause United any trouble on the coast?
Manchester United supporters will want this season to end as soon as possible, I’m sure some of you Red Devils will be eagerly waiting for Erik Ten Hag to step foot in the Theatre of Dreams. However, Ralf Rangnick must see out remaining games before he ventures into International management for the first time.
With a place in the Europa League up for grabs, United will want to secure this to give their new manager a good shot at silverware. Let’s dig into the stats…
Now I am not one to spend too much time looking into the head-to-head data, however this one may come as a surprise. United have won the last seven affairs against Albion, with three or more goals coming in seven of the last eight. You might therefore be looking at the 13/8 available on offer for the away win.
Personally, I would not advise this as a sensible punt, I have found higher +EV in the prop markets. This can be anything from the amount of shots that a player has with his left foot, to the amount of throw-ins that the away side take. The availability of these markets in the current age of betting is becoming extremely accessible for the UK audience.
Speaking of props, I have combined a couple of them into a Bet Builder on Bet365. The first selection is for Brighton’s versatile left-back, Marc Cucurella.
Bet365 are offering his tackles line at 2.5 (5/6for over/under), I have decided to take the Over 1.5 line and combine it with another selection of similar odds.
Cucurella has an average of 2.72 tackles per 90 minutes played. This is generally a very high average due to Potter’s high demands to limit the possession of the opponents. This line has landed in the last six matches that Cucurella has featured in – in his last outing he racked up an impressive four over Wolves.
Anthony Elanga, the most likely player to be on the right-wing for United, is dispossessed 1.67 times per 90 minutes. This may not be through a direct tackle, however these numbers are promising signs for Cucurella to get stuck into Rangnick’s underperforming United.
The second selection is Over 23.5 Shots – this is slightly below the line that is displayed in the Specials. The combination should come to 5/6 on Bet365.
United’s previous matches have had 19-27-28-16-35-19-22 and 30 in the most recent head-to-head. Brighton’s most recent matches 27-29-23-17-30-37-33-26-24. I would also want to add the factor that Brighton are playing with a free mindset and specifically it is their matches that have seen high shot averages. The last four Brighton home matches in the top-flight have had Over 23.5 Shots.
Skybet are also offering match shots for this match – they have priced 26+ shots at 4/5. However, I usually take these odds with a pinch of salt as they offer one-way markets on props which allows them to take a much higher margin and offer poorer prices compared to the likes of Bet365.
This game is a tricky one to find solid angles on due to the situation of Brighton, but I feel confident that this Bet Builder is a value play. At this stage of the season there will be certain games that have a lot more on the line compared to other fixtures, which can throw up potential angles that you would not have considered before.
In this match, I think that Brighton will have their fair share of possession, as we have seen before against the so called Big Six sides. Regarding the bets, Cucurella should be playing in his expansive, attack-minded style. Particularly, Brighton may decide to play a back four, which will allow Cucurella to cover a lot more of the left, allowing him to be involved in scenarios where he will be able to get successful tackles in.
Anyways, I hope I have given you something exciting enough to watch a Manchester United game (only joking).
Brighton vs Manchester United – Over 23.5 Shots and Marc Cucurella Over 1.5 Tackles (5/6 Bet365)