SPURS take on Newcastle on Super Sunday in he Premier League. Sam Ingram (@SamIngram_) shares his views from The Emirates.
Tottenham vs Newcastle | Sunday 3rd April 2022, 16:30 | Sky Sports
Newcastle United have seen a marked improvement since Eddie Howe got his feet under the table at St James’ Park. Granted, this was aided by access to a substantial pot of money in January.
Nonetheless, Howe’s squad sit 9th in the table when isolating the duration of the new manager’s stint on Tyneside. That’s pretty impressive.
In that timeframe, Newcastle’s 19.39 xG from 18 fixtures ranks the Magpies as the fifth-lowest but suggests they’re good for at least a goal a game. Howe’s xGA of 27.07 has them above nine other sides, a sign that things are improving defensively, too.
In anticipation of this travelling Toon outfit turning up and giving it a good go in London, the first selection for consideration is Unibet’s 1.90 offering of Newcastle to record over 10.5 shots in the 90 minutes.
It could be a tough day in the end for Howe’s men, as Tottenham come into the weekend with four wins from five. An aggregate score of 16-3 in those five games should concern Newcastle and hint that we may see the hosts take the lead at some point in the game.
If in a position to chase the game, I feel the 11+ attempts total needed for the Unibet shot line is a reachable one. In Newcastle’s 18 games under Howe, they’ve amassed a 13 shots per90 average. From the end of January, with Trippier, Wood, Guimarães and Burn in the fold, Newcastle’s attempts per90 average increased to 14.11.
In Tottenham’s most-recent ten fixtures, the over 10.5 shot line for opponents has banked in seven of ten. Although, in Spurs’ last five, only Brighton has surpassed over 10.5.
I’m hopeful that with Spurs intent on keeping hopes of European football alive, Conte will drive his team towards three points. This Newcastle team can certainly work a shooting opportunity, especially on the break, and if Spurs take a lead – this selection has legs.
The next best price for Newcastle shots is Skybet’s 12+ shots at 2.38 which presents value for me.
Moving away from prop markets, there is a selection that has landed in four of Spurs’ last five. Tottenham to win and over 1.5 goals in the game, at 1.83, is a price I like.
Newcastle are safe and won’t get dragged into a relegation scrap this season. The lure and chase for European football should be enough to give Spurs the edge over their opponents. With Kulusevski’s arrival sparking life into a rejuvenated forward line, don’t be surprised if Harry Kane has his share today.
At home this term, Tottenham have managed 2+ goals in 9 of 14 games. Only Liverpool and Manchester City boast a healthier number of recording multiple strikes in front of an adoring home crowd.
Tottenham vs Newcastle – Tottenham to win and Over 1.5 Goals (5/6 Bet365)
Tottenham vs Newcastle – Newcastle Over 10.5 Shots (9/10 Unibet)
Tottenham vs Newcastle – Newcastle 12+ Shots (11/8 SkyBet)